All 465 seats to the House of Representatives of Japan
233 seats needed for a majority
Results of the election.
The 48th general election of members of the House of Representatives (Japanese: 第48回衆議院議員総選挙, Hepburn: dai-yonjūhachikai Shūgiin giin sōsenkyo) took place on 22 October 2017. Voting took place in all Representatives constituencies of Japan – 289 single-member districts and eleven proportional blocks – in order to appoint all 465 members (down from 475) of the House of Representatives, the lower house of the then 707-member bicameral National Diet of Japan. Incumbent Prime Minister Shinzō Abe's governing coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Komeito party retained their seats in signs of what was perceived as weak opposition. The PM won his fourth term in office and held on to the two-thirds supermajority in order to implement policies on revising the war-renouncing Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution.
The snap election was called in the midst of the North Korea missile threat and with the largest opposition party, the Democratic Party, in disarray. Just hours before Abe's announcement of the snap election on 25 September, Governor of Tokyo Yuriko Koike launched a new conservative reformist party Kibō no Tō, the Party of Hope, which was seen as a viable alternative to the ruling coalition. It soon led to the dissolution of the Democratic Party and its party members defecting to the Kibō no Tō. However, the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, whose members Koike refused to nominate, formed the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) led by Yukio Edano, splitting the opposition in half. The election turned into a three-way contest as the CDP joined with the Japanese Communist Party and Social Democratic Party on a common platform opposing the constitutional revision. While Kibō no Tō fell short of expectation, the CDP surged in the polls in the last days before the election and beat Kibō no Tō to emerge as first among the opposition parties.
Despite being disrupted by Typhoon Lan, the election saw a slight increase in turnout rate of 53.68 percent but still was the second lowest in postwar Japan. The lowest ever turnout was recorded in 2014. It was also the first election after the voting age was lowered from 20 to 18. Abe also became the first Prime Minister to win three consecutive general elections since 1953 and the first LDP leader to do so. He became the longest-serving Prime Minister in the history of the country in August of 2020, but resigned shortly after achieving this due to health issues.
The House of Representatives has a fixed term of four years. Under the postwar constitution drafted in 1947, the interpretation of Article 7 states that the cabinet may instruct the Emperor to dissolve the House of Representatives before the end of term at will. Elections must be held within 40 days after dissolution. In June 2015, the Public Office Election Law was amended to lower the voting age from 20 to 18 years of age.
As of June 2015, the largest opposition party Democratic Party of Japan was reportedly preparing a roster of up to 250 candidates so as to be prepared in the event that the next general election was to be held alongside the House of Councillors election in the summer of 2016, before it merged with the Japan Innovation Party to form the Democratic Party in March 2016. The Democratic Party suffered a considerable defeat at the hands of the ruling coalition in the election, in which the Abe government took almost two-thirds of the seats.
In January 2017, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike established a new local party, Tomin First, to challenge the establishment Liberal Democratic Party in the Tokyo metropolitan election to be held in July. Tomin First won a resounding victory in the election, which came in the wake of the Moritomo Gakuen and Kake Gakuen scandals calling into question the propriety of the Abe government's decision making. After the election, Defense Minister Tomomi Inada resigned in connection with another scandal involving the Japan Self-Defense Forces concealing evidence of a battle in South Sudan. Meanwhile, the main national opposition Democratic Party was severely hurt by the resignation of its leader Renho in July, as well as several high-profile defections.
The government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe began publicly discussing the possibility of an election in mid-September 2017, as the North Korea crisis was ongoing. Continuing the momentum of her Tokyo election victory, Koike announced the formation of a new national political party, Kibō no Tō (Party of Hope), on 25 September. Abe called the general election just hours later on the same day. Soon after the Party of Hope was established, Democratic Party leader Seiji Maehara sought to merge with Kibō no Tō. Maehara's decision was strongly criticised by the liberal wing of the party, whose candidacies were rejected by Koike. The liberal wing surrounding the deputy president Yukio Edano announced the formation of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan on 2 October 2017. Opposition politicians claim Abe called the election partly to evade further questioning in parliament over his alleged misuse of power in securing approval for a veterinary college campus in Imabari.
One wedge issue between the two major coalitions is the scheduled consumption tax hike in October 2019. The LDP coalition advocates keeping the tax hike and using the funds for child care and education, while the Kibo coalition advocates freezing the tax hike. Nonetheless, Koike stated on 8 October that she was open to the option of a grand coalition with the LDP.
The LDP fielded 332 candidates, while Komeito fielded 53, Kibō no Tō fielded 235, and Nippon Ishin fielded 52. The Constitutional Democratic Party, Japanese Communist Party and Social Democratic Party joined forces to support a total number of 342 candidates on the common platform of opposing the revision the pacifist Article 9 of the Constitution of Japan and the new national security legislation.
Several U.S.-Japan policy experts, including James Zumwalt and Michael Green, opined in October that the election was unlikely to have a major impact on policy as the LDP was expected to retain control; however, there was anxiety about the prospect of a leadership vacuum if Abe was eventually forced to resign as head of the LDP.
Contesting parties and candidatesEdit
- The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), the conservative party led by Prime Minister Shinzō Abe who has been in power since the 2012 House of Representative election. The LDP currently enjoys the two-thirds majority with its coalition partner Komeito which allows the government to push forward the revision of the war-renouncing Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution.
- Komeito, a nominally Buddhist party led by Natsuo Yamaguchi, is the junior coalition partner of the incumbent government. Holding 35 seats in the House of Representatives, the party is considered as social conservative and closely associated with the Soka Gakkai religious movement.
- Kibō no Tō, also known as the Party of Hope, is the brand new conservative reformist party launched by Yuriko Koike, former LDP minister and incumbent Governor of Tokyo, on 25 September 2017 ahead of the general election. The new party attracted former members of the LDP as well as the conservative wing of the Democratic Party, the largest opposition party at the time, led by Seiji Maehara to join with the aims of overthrowing the Abe government. Three members of the Ichirō Ozawa's Liberal Party also decided run under Koike's banner. Despite being tipped as the first Japan's woman Prime Minister, Koike has expressed no intention to run in the general election and stated that her party would not name a prime ministerial candidate during the election. The party has promised to freeze the planned consumption tax increase and promote debate on the constitutional revision.
- Nippon Ishin no Kai, previously known as Initiatives from Osaka, is a Kansai-based party led by Governor of Osaka Ichirō Matsui. It split from the Japan Innovation Party in 2015. Having similar policies with Kibō no Tō, the party has agreed to cooperate with Koike in the coming election.
- The Japanese Communist Party (JCP), the left-wing party led by Kazuo Shii, saw its recent resurgence in the 2014 House of Representative election due to its firm pacifist stance against the revision of Article 9 of the Constitution. The party currently is the second largest opposition party, holding 21 seats in the House of Representatives. The party forms an alliance with two other left-leaning parties, the Constitutional Democrats and the Social Democrats, and plans to field 243 candidates.
- The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), a brand new centre-left social liberal party formed by Yukio Edano on 2 October 2017 by the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, the then largest opposition party, after Kibō no Tō refused to nominate the liberal candidates of the Democratic Party when the party leader Seiji Maehara decided to join Kibō no Tō with the party. The party calls for Japan to phase out nuclear power, opposes the constitutional revision and the new national security legislation with two other left-leaning opposition parties. The party plans to field 78 candidates in the coming election.
- The Social Democratic Party (SDP) is the centre-left social democratic party led by Tadatomo Yoshida, which currently holds 2 seats in the House of Representatives. It opposes the revision of the pacifist Article 9 of the Constitution, and forms an alliance with two other left-leaning to stop the constitutional revisionists from winning a two-thirds majority.
- The Party for Japanese Kokoro (PJK), formerly called the Party for Future Generations, currently holds no seat in the House of Representatives after its two members left to rejoin the Liberal Democratic Party in 2015. It is led by Masashi Nakano after its former leader Kyoko Nakayama left to join Kibō no Tō in late September and provides confidence and supply to the Abe cabinet. The party was formed by the right-wing nationalist wing led by Shintarō Ishihara who split from the Japan Restoration Party in 2014.
Voting intention (PR blocks)Edit
Voting intention (districts)Edit
|style="background:Template:Democratic Party (Japan)/meta/color;"|||style="background:Template:Liberal Party (Japan, 2016)/meta/color;"|||style="background:Template:Initiatives from Osaka/meta/color;"||
|17–18 Oct||Asahi Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) | 33||3||4||1||2||9||7||0||2||39||24|
|3–4 Oct||Asahi Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) | 31||4||4||0||0||1||2||10||4||0||0||44||21|
|26–27 Sep||Asahi Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) | 31||9||3||4||0||1||0||2||6||1||1||42||22|
|23–24 Sep||Kyodo News||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) | 28.1||6.4||3.8||-||-||-||-||-||6.6||-||-||-||21.5|
|style="background:Template:Democratic Party (Japan)/meta/color;"|||style="background:Template:Liberal Party (Japan, 2016)/meta/color;"|||style="background:Template:Initiatives from Osaka/meta/color;"||
|17–19 Oct||The Nikkei||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) | 41||11||13||11||28|
|17–18 Oct||Asahi Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) | 32||1||4||3||0||1||0||2||6||7||1||27||16||5|
|14–15 Oct||FNN||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) | 34.5||0.7||5.4||3.6||0.2||0.5||0.0||3.3||9.5||11.6||1.5||27.9||1.3||6.6|
|14–15 Oct||JNN||32.8||1.2||3.8||3.2||0.1||0.5||0.1||1.8||5.2||7.3||0.8||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |38.1||5.3||5.3|
|13–15 Oct||NHK||32.8||1.0||4.3||3.4||0.1||0.6||0.2||1.7||5.4||6.6||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |34.0||1.2|
|10–11 Oct||The Nikkei||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) | 39||5||5||0||1||3||13||11||11||28|
|7–9 Oct||NHK||31.2||1.6||3.8||2.7||0.0||0.5||0.0||1.3||4.8||4.4||0.4||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |39.1||10.0||7.9|
|6–9 Oct||Jiji Press||23.9||1.6||3.6||2.5||0.1||0.2||0.0||1.4||2.6||2.7||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |57.2||33.3|
|7–8 Oct||Yomiuri Shimbun||33||1||3||3||0||0||1||8||4||0||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |38||8||5|
|3–4 Oct||Asahi Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) | 30||2||5||2||0||0||0||1||5||3||1||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |30||21||Tied|
|30 Sep – 1 Oct||ANN||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) | 39.6||7.1||4.6||5.8||1.9||0.6||2.8||9.6||0.0||28.0||11.6|
|29 Sep – 1 Oct||NHK||30.8||3.9||3.8||3.3||0.6||0.3||1.0||5.4||40.4||9.6|
|28–29 Sep||Yomiuri Shimbun||32||4||4||3||0||0||1||9||0||40||7||8|
|26–27 Sep||Asahi Shimbun||31||6||4||3||0||1||0||1||3||1||32||18||1|
|26–27 Sep||Mainichi Shimbun||28||5||4||4||0||0||1||2||13||1||39||11|
|22–24 Sep||The Nikkei & TV Tokyo||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) | 44||7||3||5||0||1||0||2||0||32||6||12|
|16–17 Sep||ANN||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) | 46.2||11.3||3.5||5.7||0.0||0.8||0.3||1.8||1.4||29.0||17.2|
|8–11 Sep||Jiji Press||23.7||4.3||4.9||1.3||0.0||0.1||0.0||1.0||62.9||39.2|
|8–10 Sep||Yomiuri Shimbun||40||5||3||3||0||0||1||0||45||2||5|
|25-27 Aug||The Nikkei & TV Tokyo||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 41||7||3||4||0||1||0||2||1||36||5||5|
|5-6 Aug||Asahi Shimbun||33||6||3||3||0||0||0||1||1||46||7||13|
|5-6 Aug||ANN||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 38.1||10.8||3.9||5.6||0.1||1.5||0.8||1.4||0.7||37.1||1.0|
|3-6 Aug||Jiji Press||25.7||3.2||2.5||2.3||0.0||0.8||0.2||0.8||62.2||36.5|
|3-4 Aug||The Nikkei & TV Tokyo||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) | 37||8||5||5||0||1||0||2||0||36||6||1|
|3-4 Aug||Yomiuri Shimbun||36||6||3||3||1||0||1||0||45||4||9|
|3-4 Aug||Mainichi Shimbun||26||7||5||5||0||1||0||3||1||47||21|
|3-4 Aug||Kyodo News||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 39.0||7.3||5.9||5.1||0.2||0.4||0.3||2.6||37.9||1.1|
|22-23 Jul||Mainichi Shimbun||25||5||3||5||0||1||1||2||2||53||28|
|7-10 Jul||Jiji Press||21.1||3.8||3.2||2.1||0.0||0.3||0.0||1.1||65.3||44.2|
|8-9 Jul||Asahi Shimbun||30||5||4||4||0||1||0||1||1||47||7||17|
|7-9 Jul||Yomiuri Shimbun||31||6||4||4||0||0||0||1||2||47||4||16|
|17-18 Jun||Mainichi Shimbun||27||8||3||4||0||1||1||2||1||47||20|
|17-18 Jun||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 41||7||3||3||0||1||0||1||0||40||4||1|
|17-18 Jun||Asahi Shimbun||34||8||4||4||0||1||0||1||0||41||7||7|
|16-18 Jun||NTV||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 38.5||11.0||5.1||4.1||0.0||1.4||0.1||1.1||0.3||33.4||5.0||5.1|
|13–14 May||FNN||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 41.6||8.0||2.9||4.3||0.6||0.8||0.8||2.9||2.1||35.6||0.4||6.0|
|12–14 May||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 43||6||2||2||0||0||1||1||39||5||4|
|14-16 Apr||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 44||6||3||3||0||0||2||0||38||4||6|
|18-19 Mar||Yomiuri Shimbun||40||7||2||3||1||0||2||0||43||2||3|
|10-12 Mar||NHK||36.9||7.6||4.1||2.8||0.0||1.1||0.1||1.6||0.4||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |38.9||6.6||2.0|
|17-19 Feb||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 43||6||4||3||0||0||0||1||0||40||2||3|
|11-12 Feb||NHK||38.2||6.4||2.8||4.4||0.7||0.4||0.3||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |40.1||5.2||1.9|
|27-29 Jan||Yomiuri Shimbun||40||7||3||4||0||0||0||1||0||42||2||2|
|7-9 Jan||NHK||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 38.3||8.7||3.5||3.2||0.9||0.0||0.3||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |38.3||5.3||Tied|
|8-10 Oct||NHK||37.1||9.9||3.9||3.9||0.0||1.1||0.1||1.1||0.2||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |37.8||4.9||0.7|
|7-9 Oct||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 40||7||3||3||0||1||0||2||1||39||4||1|
|9-11 Sep||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 46.0||8.0||3.0||4.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||3.0||1.0||31.0||2.0||15.0|
|9-11 Sep||NHK||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 40.2||8.3||4.3||2.5||0.2||0.4||0.0||1.9||0.2||36.0||6.1||4.2|
|4-6 Mar||Yomiuri Shimbun||37.0||8.0||3.0||4.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |43.0||2.0||6.0|
|12-14 Feb||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 42.0||7.0||3.0||3.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||40.0||3.0||2.0|
|5-7 Feb||NHK||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 37.6||9.6||3.6||3.9||0.2||0.2||0.0||1.6||0.1||35.1||7.4||2.5|
|30-31 Jan||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 40.0||7.0||4.0||4.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||2.0||0.0||39.0||3.0||1.0|
|9-11 Jan||NHK||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 37.5||8.1||4.3||4.2||0.0||0.6||0.3||1.9||0.2||33.1||9.4||4.4|
|8-10 Jan||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 40.0||8.0||4.0||4.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||2.0||0.0||37.0||4.0||3.0|
|17-18 Dec||Yomiuri Shimbun||37.0||9.0||5.0||4.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||2.0||0.0||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |39.0||0.0||2.0|
|11-13 Dec||NHK||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 37.5||8.5||4.7||5.0||0.0||0.5||0.1||1.8||0.2||34.3||7.0||3.2|
|4-6 Dec||Yomiuri Shimbun||36.0||7.0||3.0||4.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||4.0||0.0||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |43.0||2.0||7.0|
|6-8 Nov||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 40.0||7.0||3.0||5.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||2.0||0.0||39.0||2.0||1.0|
|6-8 Nov||NHK||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 37.1||8.4||3.4||4.1||0.0||0.5||0.3||1.1||0.1||36.3||8.2||0.8|
|10-12 Oct||NHK||35.6||8.6||3.3||4.2||0.2||0.9||0.3||0.1||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |35.7||10.3||0.1|
|7-8 Oct||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 39.0||10.0||3.0||3.0||1.0||0.0||0.0||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |39.0||1.0||Tied|
|19-20 Sep||Yomiuri Shimbun||33.0||11.0||3.0||4.0||0.0||1.0||1.0||0.0||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |42.0||3.0||9.0|
|11–13 Sep||NHK||34.7||9.8||3.7||4.0||0.1||0.6||0.2||0.6||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |36.2||9.0||1.5|
|15-16 Aug||Yomiuri Shimbun||37.0||10.0||3.0||4.0||1.0||0.0||0.0||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |39.0||3.0||2.0|
|7–9 Aug||NHK||34.3||10.9||3.0||4.2||0.2||0.7||0.0||0.1||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |34.5||9.6||0.2|
|24-26 Jul||Yomiuri Shimbun||36.0||8.0||3.0||5.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |41.0||3.0||5.0|
|18–19 Jul||Asahi Shimbun||31.0||9.0||4.0||4.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||0.0||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |41.0||7.0||10.0|
|11–12 Jul||Asahi Shimbun||32.0||8.0||4.0||4.0||1.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |38.0||10.0||6.0|
|10–12 Jul||NHK||34.7||7.7||4.2||3.3||0.1||0.7||0.4||0.1||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |36.8||9.5||2.1|
|3-5 Jul||Yomiuri Shimbun||35.0||9.0||4.0||3.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |44.0||1.0||9.0|
|20–21 Jun||Asahi Shimbun||36.0||7.0||3.0||3.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||0.0||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |41.0||7.0||5.0|
|5-7 Jun||Yomiuri Shimbun||38.0||7.0||3.0||4.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |42.0||2.0||4.0|
|5–7 Jun||NHK||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 35.8||9.4||3.6||4.4||0.0||0.9||0.0||0.2||33.9||9.3||1.9|
|16–17 May||Asahi Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 39.0||7.0||3.0||4.0||0.0||0.0||0.0||1.0||33.0||10.0||6.0|
|8–10 May||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 43.0||10.0||4.0||4.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||0.0||35.0||2.0||8.0|
|8–10 May||NHK||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 37.5||7.8||5.3||3.5||0.0||0.8||0.2||0.0||34.7||8.4||2.8|
|18–19 Apr||Asahi Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 36.0||7.0||4.0||5.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||0.0||34.0||10.0||2.0|
|10–12 Apr||NHK||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 37.8||9.2||4.1||4.8||0.2||0.9||0.1||0.3||29.2||9.9||8.6|
|3-5 Apr||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 41.0||7.0||4.0||4.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||0.0||40.0||1.0||1.0|
|14–15 Mar||Asahi Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 38.0||8.0||3.0||3.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||1.0||37.0||8.0||1.0|
|6–8 Mar||NHK||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 36.7||10.9||3.8||4.6||0.0||1.6||0.3||0.3||31.8||8.1||4.9|
|28 Jan-28 Feb||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 43.0||9.0||4.0||4.0||1.0||1.0||1.0||0.0||30.0||1.0||13.0|
|14–15 Feb||Asahi Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 40.0||7.0||4.0||4.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||1.0||35.0||7.0||5.0|
|6–8 Feb||NHK||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 41.2||10.3||4.9||4.2||0.1||0.7||0.0||0.1||29.7||6.5||11.5|
|6-7 Feb||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 42.0||11.0||3.0||4.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||0.0||35.0||1.0||8.0|
|17–18 Jan||Asahi Shimbun||33.0||9.0||4.0||4.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||1.0||Template:Party shading/Nonpartisan |38.0||7.0||5.0|
|10–12 Jan||NHK||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 39.4||9.2||4.0||3.7||0.4||0.8||0.1||0.2||31.9||7.7||7.5|
|9-11 Jan||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 41.0||8.0||3.0||5.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||0.0||38.0||1.0||3.0|
|24-25 Dec||Yomiuri Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 36.0||11.0||5.0||6.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||1.0||32.0||3.0||4.0|
|15–16 Dec||Asahi Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 35.0||7.0||4.0||4.0||0.0||1.0||0.0||1.0||33.0||12.0||2.0|
|14 Dec 2014||General Election||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)| 33.1||18.3||13.7||11.4||2.7||2.5||1.9||N/A||N/A||N/A||0.7||N/A||N/A||14.9|
Preferred prime ministerEdit
|14–15 Oct||FNN & Sankei Shimbun||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) | 54.0||26.5||19.5||27.5|
|30 Sep – 1 Oct||Kyodo News||Template:Party shading/Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) | 45.9||33.0||21.1||12.9|
|Date||Polling Firm/Source||Government gains seats||LDP re-election||Balanced||Opposition gains seats||Change in government||Und. + No Answer|
|17–18 Oct||Asahi Shimbun||37||36||27|
|14–15 Oct||FNN & Sankei Shimbun||50.5||40.6||8.9|
|7–8 Oct||Yomiuri Shimbun||44||42[nb 2]||14|
|3–4 Oct||Asahi Shimbun||43||33||24|
|30 Sep – 1 Oct||ANN||44||38||18|
|30 Sep – 1 Oct||Kyodo News||27.4||48.6||16.9|
|29 Sep – 1 Oct||NHK||20||33||42|
|26–27 Sep||Mainichi Shimbun||34||49|
Cabinet approval / disapproval ratingsEdit
|Date||Polling Firm/Source||PM||Approval||Disapproval||Und. + No Answer|
|17–19 Oct||The Nikkei||Shinzō Abe||46||44||22|
|17–18 Oct||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||38||40||22|
|15–16 Oct||go2senkyo.com||Shinzō Abe||50||50||0|
|14–15 Oct||FNN||Shinzō Abe||42.5||46.3||11.2|
|14–15 Oct||JNN||Shinzō Abe||48.7||49.2||2.0|
|13–15 Oct||NHK||Shinzō Abe||39||42|
|10–11 Oct||The Nikkei||Shinzō Abe||37||48|
|10–11 Oct||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||43||41|
|7–9 Oct||NHK||Shinzō Abe||37||43|
|6–9 Oct||Jiji Press||Shinzō Abe||37.1||41.8|
|8 Oct||go2senkyo.com||Shinzō Abe||45||54||1|
|7-8 Oct||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||41||46||13|
|3-4 Oct||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||40||38||22|
|1 Oct||go2senkyo.com||Shinzō Abe||47||52||1|
|30 Sep - 1 Oct||ANN||Shinzō Abe||36.9||46.3||16.8|
|30 Sep - 1 Oct||Kyodo News||Shinzō Abe||40.6||46.2|
|29 Sep - 1 Oct||Seijiyama||Shinzō Abe||35.7||47.7||16.6|
|29 Sep - 1 Oct||NHK||Shinzō Abe||37||44|
|28-29 Sep||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||43||46||11|
|26-27 Sep||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||36||39||25|
|26-27 Sep||Mainichi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||36||42||19|
|23-24 Sep||Kyodo News||Shinzō Abe||45.0||41.3|
|22-24 Sep||Nikkei & TV Tokyo||Shinzō Abe||50||42||8|
|16-17 Sep||ANN||Shinzō Abe||41.3||39.6||19.1|
|16-17 Sep||FNN||Shinzō Abe||50.3||40.0|
|8-11 Sep||Jiji News||Shinzō Abe||41.8||36.7|
|9-10 Sep||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||38||38|
|8-10 Sep||NHK||Shinzō Abe||44||36|
|8-10 Sep||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||50||39|
|8-10 Sep||NTV||Shinzō Abe||42.1||41.0||17.0|
|2-3 Sep||JNN||Shinzō Abe||48.1||50.5||1.5|
|2-3 Sep||Mainichi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||39||36||22|
|2-3 Sep||Kyodo News||Shinzō Abe||44.5||46.1|
|25-27 Aug||The Nikkei & TV Tokyo||Shinzō Abe||46||46|
|19-20 Aug||FNN||Shinzō Abe||43.8||49.0||7.2|
|5-6 Aug||ANN||Shinzō Abe||37.6||47.2||15.2|
|5-6 Aug||JNN||Shinzō Abe||39.7||59.0||1.3|
|5-6 Aug||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||35||45|
|4-6 Aug||NHK||Shinzō Abe||39||43|
|4-6 Aug||NTV||Shinzō Abe||35.6||47.3||17.1|
|3-6 Aug||Jiji Press||Shinzō Abe||36.6||44.1|
|3-4 Aug||Kyodo News||Shinzō Abe||44.4||43.2|
|3-4 Aug||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||42||48|
|3-4 Aug||The Nikkei & TV Tokyo||Shinzō Abe||42||49|
|3-4 Aug||Mainichi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||35||47||17|
|22-23 Jul||FNN||Shinzō Abe||34.7||56.1||9.2|
|22-23 Jul||The Nikkei & TV Tokyo||Shinzō Abe||39||52|
|22-23 Jul||Mainichi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||26||56||17|
|15-16 Jul||ANN||Shinzō Abe||29.2||54.5||16.3|
|15-16 Jul||Kyodo News[permanent dead link]||Shinzō Abe||35.8||53.1|
|7-10 Jul||Jiji Press||Shinzō Abe||29.9||48.6|
|8-9 Jul||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||33||47||20|
|7-9 Jul||NTV||Shinzō Abe||31.9||49.2||18.9|
|7-9 Jul||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||36||52||11|
|7-9 Jul||NHK||Shinzō Abe||35||48||17|
|1-2 Jul||JNN||Shinzō Abe||43.3||55.5||1.3|
|17-18 Jun||Mainichi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||36||44||17|
|17-18 Jun||ANN||Shinzō Abe||37.9||41.6||20.5|
|17-18 Jun||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||41||37||20|
|17-18 Jun||Kyodo News[permanent dead link]||Shinzō Abe||44.9||43.1|
|17-18 Jun||FNN||Shinzō Abe||47.6||42.9||9.5|
|17-18 Jun||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||49||41||10|
|16-18 Jun||The Nikkei||Shinzō Abe||49||42|
|16-18 Jun||NTV||Shinzō Abe||39.8||41.8||18.4|
|9-11 Jun||NHK||Shinzō Abe||48||36||16|
|3-4 Jun||JNN||Shinzō Abe||54.4||44.1||1.5|
|25–28 May||The Nikkei||Shinzō Abe||56||36|
|20–21 May||Mainichi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||46||35||16|
|20–21 May||ANN||Shinzō Abe||46.4||32.4||21.2|
|19–21 May||NTV||Shinzō Abe||46.1||36.4||17.6|
|13–14 May||FNN||Shinzō Abe||56.1||34.7||9.2|
|12–14 May||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||61||28||11|
|12–14 May||NHK||Shinzō Abe||51||30||19|
|29-30 Apr||JNN||Shinzō Abe||63.3||34.8||1.9|
|27-30 Apr||The Nikkei||Shinzō Abe||60||32|
|22-23 Apr||Mainichi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||51||30||17|
|22-23 Apr||ANN||Shinzō Abe||50.4||33.0||16.6|
|15-16 Apr||FNN||Shinzō Abe||59.3||30.4||10.3|
|14-16 Apr||NTV||Shinzō Abe||50.4||30.8||18.8|
|14-16 Apr||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||60||29||11|
|7-9 Apr||NHK||Shinzō Abe||53||27||20|
|1-2 Apr||JNN||Shinzō Abe||57.0||40.6||2.4|
|25-26 Mar||ANN||Shinzō Abe||50.5||31.2||18.3|
|24-26 Mar||The Nikkei||Shinzō Abe||62||30|
|18-19 Mar||FNN||Shinzō Abe||57.4||30.9||11.7|
|18-19 Mar||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||56||33||12|
|17-19 Mar||NTV||Shinzō Abe||47.6||32.9||19.5|
|10-12 Mar||NHK||Shinzō Abe||51||31||18|
|4-5 Mar||JNN||Shinzō Abe||61.0||37.3||1.7|
|25-26 Feb||ANN||Shinzō Abe||54.5||27.9||17.6|
|24-26 Feb||The Nikkei||Shinzō Abe||60||30|
|18-19 Feb||FNN||Shinzō Abe||58.8||30.1||11.1|
|17-19 Feb||NTV||Shinzō Abe||54.9||26.0||19.1|
|17-19 Feb||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||66||24||9|
|11-12 Feb||NHK||Shinzō Abe||58||23||19|
|4-5 Feb||JNN||Shinzō Abe||65.4||33.4||1.2|
|28-29 Jan||FNN||Shinzō Abe||60.7||30.7||8.6|
|28-29 Jan||ANN||Shinzō Abe||55.3||27.5||17.2|
|27-29 Jan||The Nikkei||Shinzō Abe||66||26|
|27-29 Jan||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||61||31||8|
|20-22 Jan||NTV||Shinzō Abe||57.2||28.9||13.9|
|14-15 Jan||JNN||Shinzō Abe||67.0||31.5||1.7|
|7-9 Jan||NHK||Shinzō Abe||55||29||16|
|17-18 Dec||FNN||Shinzō Abe||55.6||30.9||13.5|
|12-13 Nov||FNN||Shinzō Abe||57.9||31.9||10.2|
|15-16 Oct||FNN||Shinzō Abe||57.6||35.5||6.9|
|17-18 Sep||FNN||Shinzō Abe||56.6||33.3||10.1|
|9-11 Sep||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||62||29||9|
|9-11 Sep||NHK||Shinzō Abe||57||26||17|
|6-7 Aug||FNN||Shinzō Abe||55.4||33.1||11.5|
|16-17 Jul||FNN||Shinzō Abe||49.8||39.1||11.1|
|18-19 Jun||FNN||Shinzō Abe||49.4||38.1||10.6|
|4-6 Mar||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||49||40||11|
|12-14 Feb||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||52||36||12|
|5-7 Feb||NHK||Shinzō Abe||50||34||16|
|30-31 Jan||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||56||34||9|
|9-11 Jan||NHK||Shinzō Abe||46||35||19|
|8-10 Jan||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||54||36||9|
|17-18 Dec||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||49||39||12|
|11-13 Dec||NHK||Shinzō Abe||46||36||18|
|4-6 Dec||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||48||40||12|
|6-8 Nov||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||51||38||11|
|6-8 Nov||NHK||Shinzō Abe||47||39||14|
|10-12 Oct||NHK||Shinzō Abe||43||40||17|
|7-8 Oct||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||46||45||8|
|19-20 Sep||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||41||51||8|
|11–13 Sep||NHK||Shinzō Abe||43||39||18|
|15-16 Aug||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||45||45||10|
|7–9 Aug||NHK||Shinzō Abe||37||46||17|
|24-26 Jul||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||43||49||8|
|18–19 Jul||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||37||46||17|
|11–12 Jun||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||39||42||19|
|10–12 Jul||NHK||Shinzō Abe||41||43||16|
|3-5 Jul||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||49||40||10|
|20–21 Jun||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||39||37||24|
|5-7 Jun||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||53||36||10|
|5–7 Jun||NHK||Shinzō Abe||48||34||18|
|16–17 May||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||45||32||23|
|8–10 May||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||58||32||10|
|8–10 May||NHK||Shinzō Abe||51||32||17|
|18–19 Apr||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||44||35||21|
|10–12 Apr||NHK||Shinzō Abe||51||34||15|
|3-5 Apr||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||57||35||8|
|14–15 Mar||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||46||33||21|
|6–8 Mar||NHK||Shinzō Abe||46||37||17|
|28 Jan-28 Feb||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||56||36||8|
|14–15 Feb||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||50||31||19|
|6–8 Feb||NHK||Shinzō Abe||54||29||17|
|6-7 Feb||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||58||34||8|
|17–18 Jan||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||42||37||21|
|10–12 Jan||NHK||Shinzō Abe||50||32||18|
|9-11 Jan||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||53||38||9|
|24-25 Dec||Yomiuri Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||49||41||10|
|15–16 Dec||Asahi Shimbun||Shinzō Abe||43||34||23|
|5–7 Dec||NHK||Shinzō Abe||47||38||15|
|Parties||Constituency||PR Block||Total seats|
|Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)||26,719,032||48.21||0.11||218||18,555,717||33.28||0.17||66||284||6||61.08||0.02|
|Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP)||4,852,097||8.75||New||18||11,084,890||19.88||New||37||55||40||11.83||6.66|
|Japanese Communist Party (JCP)||4,998,932||9.02||4.28||1||4,404,081||7.90||3.47||11||12||9||2.58||1.84|
|Social Democratic Party (SDP)||634,719||1.15||0.36||1||941,324||1.69||0.77||1||2||0||0.43||0.01|
|Kibō no Tō (Party of Hope)||11,437,601||20.64||New||18||9,677,524||17.36||New||32||50||7||10.75||1.25|
|Nippon Ishin no Kai (JIP)||1,765,053||3.18||4.98||3||3,387,097||6.07||9.65||8||11||3||2.37||0.58|
|Happiness Realization Party (HRP)||159,171||0.29||–||0||292,084||0.52||0.03||0||0||0||0.00||0.00|
|New Party Daichi||–||–||–||–||226,552||0.41||–||0||0||0||0.00||0.00|
|No Party to Support||–||–||–||–||125,019||0.22||0.02||0||0||0||0.00||0.00|
|Party for Japanese Kokoro (PJK)||–||–||–||–||85,552||0.15||2.50||0||0||0||0.00||0.00|
|Party||Name||Constituency||Year elected||Defeated by||Party||Details|
|Template:Party shortname||Yūji Yamamoto||Kochi-2nd||1990 (in Kochi-3rd)||Hajime Hirota||Template:Party shortname||Agriculture Minister in the Third Abe Cabinet. He was returned to the Diet through the Shikoku PR block.|
|Koya Nishikawa||Tochigi-2nd (Kita-Kantō PR block)||1996||Akio Fukuda||Template:Party shortname||Agriculture Minister in the Second Abe Cabinet who was defeated in the district in 2014 but managed to return through the PR block at that time. He didn't enter the block this time round and therefore was not returned to the Diet.|
|Yūko Nakagawa||Hokkaido-11th||2012||Kaori Ishikawa||Template:Party shortname||MP since 2012 and widow of former Finance Minister, Shōichi Nakagawa.|
|Miki Yamada||Tokyo-1st||2012||Banri Kaieda||Template:Party shortname||Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs in the Third Abe Cabinet. Yamada famously defeated former DPJ leader Kaieda in the 2014 election. Kaieda regained his seat in this election. Yamada was able to retain her Diet seat through the LDP list for the Tokyo PR block.|
|Takao Ochi||Tokyo-6th||2012||Takayuki Ochiai||Template:Party shortname||Vice Minister of the Cabinet Office in the Second and Third Abe Cabinet. Ochi was able to hold on to his Diet seat through the LDP list for the Tokyo PR block.|
|Masatada Tsuchiya||Tokyo-18th||2012||Naoto Kan||Template:Party shortname||Former mayor of Musashino. Tsuchiya defeated former PM Kan in the 2014 election. Kan was able to return to the parliament through the Tokyo PR block and was the very last (475th) MP elected that night. He regained his seat in the election. Conversely, Tsuchiya wasn't returned to the Diet as he was not in the LDP list for the Tokyo PR block.|
|Template:Party shortname||Isamu Ueda||Kanagawa-6th||2000 (block)
|Yōichirō Aoyagi||Template:Party shortname||Deputy Secretary General of the Komeito party and Vice Finance Minister in the Second and Third Koizumi Cabinet|
|Template:Party shortname||Masaru Wakasa||Tokyo-10th||2014 (block)
|Hayato Suzuki||Template:Party shortname||A founding member of Kibō no Tō and one of the closest allies of Yuriko Koike. He was in the Kibō list for the Tokyo PR block, but was not able to hold on to his Diet seat due to receiving inadequate votes.|
|Sumio Mabuchi||Nara-1st||2003||Shigeki Kobayashi||Template:Party shortname||Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in the Kan cabinet and a candidate for the 2012 DPJ leadership election. Mabuchi has the highest ratio of margin of defeat (97.27%) among all defeated candidates in the election.|
|Template:Party shortname (formerly LDP)||Keiichirō Asao||Kanagawa-4th||2009||Yuki Waseda||Template:Party shortname||Former chairman of the defunct Your Party. He contested as an independent as he wasn't selected by the LDP in the snap election.|
|Mayuko Toyota||Saitama-4th||2012||Yasushi Hosaka||Template:Party shortname||Toyota resigned from the LDP due to a high-profile bullying scandal in June 2017. At the time of the election, she was under investigation for assaulting her former aide. She contested as an independent as she wasn't selected by the LDP in the snap election.|
|bgcolor="Template:Democratic Party (Japan)/meta/color" |||DP||Kōhei Ōtsuka||16||48|
|bgcolor="Template:Democratic Party (Japan)/meta/color" |||Former DP||Seiji Maehara||1||0|
|Did not vote||0||3|
Reactions and analysisEdit
The success of the CDP in surpassing the Kibō no Tō in the number of seats and becoming the official opposition party was surprising. It presents a potential challenge for the ruling coalition to pass the constitutional amendment of Article 9, which was one of the main issues of the 2017 general election that was supported by Koike but opposed by the pacifist coalition. With the super-majority in both the upper and the lower house, the ruling coalition are expected to pass other legislation without much resistance. In a post-election conference, Prime Minister Shinzō Abe was optimistic about moving forward, stating that the victory was the first time the LDP have "won three consecutive victories" under the same party leader. The landslide victory achieved by the LDP campaign has been observed as not completely related to the popularity of Shinzo Abe, as the victory was also significantly influenced by the disconnect between the oppositions, notably the failure of Koike and the pacifist coalition to unite over many election issues.
A special Diet session was convened on 1 November to elect the next prime minister. Abe was re-elected with 312 and 151 votes in the House of Representatives and House of Councillors respectively. The new cabinet was formed later on the day.
- This poll is not specific to the PR blocks, but is rather a general voting-intention poll. "At the next elections, what is the party that you would like to vote for, or to which your preferred candidate belongs?".
- This response was phrased as "The government loses its majority", which would include both those wishing for a change in government, as well as those wishing for the coalition to negotiate with other parties.
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